Quantitative risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall based on direct costs of urban buildings

Abstract

This paper outlines a framework for risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall in urban buildings in the city of Medellín - Colombia, applying a model that uses a geographic information system (GIS). We applied a computer model that includes topographic, geological, geotechnical and hydrological features of the study area to assess landslide hazards using the Newmark's pseudo-static method, together with a probabilistic approach based on the first order and second moment method (FOSM). The physical vulnerability assessment of buildings was conducted using structural fragility indexes, as well as the definition of damage level of buildings via decision trees and using Medellin's cadastral inventory data. The probability of occurrence of a landslide was calculated assuming that an earthquake produces horizontal ground acceleration (Ah) and considering the uncertainty of the geotechnical parameters and the soil saturation conditions of the ground. The probability of occurrence was multiplied by the structural fragility index values and by the replacement value of structures. The model implemented aims to quantify the risk caused by this kind of disaster in an area of the city of Medellín based on different values of Ah and an analysis of the damage costs of this disaster to buildings under different scenarios and structural conditions. Currently, 62% of “Valle de Aburra” where the study area is located is under very low condition of landslide hazard and 38% is under low condition. If all buildings in the study area fulfilled the requirements of the Colombian building code, the costs of a landslide would be reduced 63% compared with the current condition. An earthquake with a return period of 475 years was used in this analysis according to the seismic microzonation study in 2002.