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Probabilistic Analysis of the Obstruction of Water Sources Due to the Occurrence of Rainfall-Triggered Mass Movements

dc.contributor.authorGiraldo L.O
dc.contributor.authorHernández B.A.B
dc.contributor.authorGutiérrez J.A.V.
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-14T14:33:58Z
dc.date.available2022-09-14T14:33:58Z
dc.date.created2021
dc.identifier.issn17551307
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11407/7541
dc.descriptionThis paper presents a methodology for the probabilistic estimation of the obstruction of water streams generated by shallow mass movements triggered by rainfall. The study focuses on the Ovejas River, a tributary stream of the Medellín River, in the jurisdiction of the municipality of San Vicente in the department of Antioquia (Colombia). The occurrence of a mass movements was evaluated by deterministic and probabilistic methods based on the automation of processes of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial modeling. The spatial distribution of the mass movement hazard was estimated in terms of Factor of Safety (FoS) values by the deterministic method with physical basis SLIDE (Slope - Infiltration - Distributed Equilibrium), which allows the hazard zonation by calculating a FoS for rainfall-induced mass movements with different return periods. The rainfall regimes of the study area are estimated by means of a simple scaling Log Normal Model. On the other hand, the Probability of Failure (PF) analysis was performed under Rosenblueth's punctual estimates method (PEM), which allows incorporating the uncertainty of the soil parameters. Subsequently, the resulting zones with high hazard that could detach and reach the Ovejas River channel are identified as sources for runout modeling by means of the Flow R model, thus estimating the extent of mass movement in probabilistic terms. In all the analyzed scenarios, the sliding material from the critical stability zones has a high probability of spreading to the riverbed of the main river. This analysis makes possible to identify those areas of the riverbed that should be analyzed with more detail and require possible intervention for the protection of the riverbed. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.eng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherIOP Publishing Ltd
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85121426927&doi=10.1088%2f1755-1315%2f906%2f1%2f012040&partnerID=40&md5=d7f4c2dadc7e18fe0452a10f113d1441
dc.sourceIOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
dc.titleProbabilistic Analysis of the Obstruction of Water Sources Due to the Occurrence of Rainfall-Triggered Mass Movements
dc.typeConference Paper
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.publisher.programIngeniería Civil
dc.type.spaDocumento de conferencia
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1755-1315/906/1/012040
dc.relation.citationvolume906
dc.relation.citationissue1
dc.publisher.facultyFacultad de Ingenierías
dc.affiliationGiraldo, L.O., Universidad de Medellín, Facultad de Ingeniería, Colombia
dc.affiliationHernández, B.A.B., Universidad de Medellín, Facultad de Ingeniería, Colombia
dc.affiliationGutiérrez, J.A.V., Universidad de Medellín, Facultad de Ingeniería, Colombia
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dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/other
dc.identifier.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad de Medellín
dc.identifier.repourlrepourl:https://repository.udem.edu.co/
dc.identifier.instnameinstname:Universidad de Medellín
dc.relation.ispartofconference7th World Multidisciplinary Earth Sciences Symposium, WMESS 2021


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