Modelo de simulación y predicción de riesgos laborales en la construcción de edificios : caso Colombia

Abstract

The construction sector is key strategic sector of economic and social development of any country. Its importance is due to the stimulus on the economy growth through employment creation and activation of the production chain that involves human, physical, technological and financial resources. Unfortunately, the construction industry has one of the highest accident rates in the world that produces negative consequences for workers, family, business and society. The above give rise to development of this thesis, which consists of a simulation model and prediction of occupational hazards in the construction of buildings that allows the calculation of the days of temporary incapacity due to accident or illness. The thesis is divided into the following parts: the first one, which gives the basis to this research and consisting of the framework which defines and highlights the key terms related to the development of the thesis and state of the art containing investigations by other authors and their contributions to the issue; the second one, which allows to know the current situation of occupational health and safety in the Colombian construction companies and consists of a statistical analysis of accident data and a study on the current situation of occupational risks management of in the industry; and finally the third part, which describes the way in which the model was made, based on data collection through direct observation on site followed by the elaboration of the distribution curves of the risk situations frequency and severity and modeling with Monte Carlo Method to finally perform a sensitivity study that will improve the decision making. The model makes an assessment of risk situations in probabilistic way according to frequency and severity of the consequences. To calculate the severity (days of temporary incapacity) was necessary to know the damage on the health of workers for each of accidents or illnesses that could arise from lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) or collective protection elements (CPE). With this information the time periods suggested in El Manual de Tiempos Óptimos de Incapacidad Temporal del Instituto Nacional de Seguridad de España to determine the inability were used. This thesis consist of a new proposed tool that allows: to estimate the risk for trade and construction activity by interpreting of resulting probability distribution curves; to reduce the risk through different alternatives related to the supply and correct use of PPE and / or EPC and improving environmental conditions; to quantify the benefits of implementing technical or management systems in occupational health and safety; to use a new technique for the audit in occupational health and safety in construction and to have a flexible tool to measure current and own data and to control occupational risks of any kind of company and construction, independent of historical data.